The last major inflation report before Election Day deepened Republican gloom on Wednesday, as it revealed that rising energy costs, largely driven by the war with Iran, have pushed prices up with just a few weeks to go until the midterms.
The report showed that consumer prices last month were 3.7 percent higher than they were a year earlier, contradicting President Trump’s sunny pronouncements about an improving economy.
It painted a picture of a nation getting less affordable on the eve of an election that could well turn on the issue of affordability. And it handed Democrats an opportunity to tie pain at the pump — and at grocery stores, airports and feedlots — directly to the president’s decision to start a war in the Middle East, and to the elected Republicans who have supported him.
“It puts a number on the sentiment that is driving this election,” said Jason Roe, a Republican strategist based in Michigan. “It would be one thing for Republicans to say, ‘Things are getting better.’ But it’s hard to say when you have a data point less than three weeks before the election that shows they’re not.”
The numbers
The price of fuel has rocketed upward, hitting Americans each time they fill the tank and raising prices on goods that need to be moved from one place to another.
“People are starting to fire up their furnaces. They’re still filling up their pump. It’s just on the front lines of every family’s budget in a forward-facing way,” said Colin Reed, a Republican strategist. He described rising energy costs as an extra “burden” on Republican candidates who were always going to have a tough midterm, when the president’s party historically takes a beating.
It’s not just fuel, though. Close to half of Americans are having trouble paying for basic needs, according to a study by the Pew Research Center. And the combination of higher inflation and weaker wage growth means Americans are actually earning less for an hour of work.
As my colleague Ben Casselman pointed out, Americans’ real wages, on average, have been stuck in place since Mr. Trump returned to the White House.
The blame game
Democrats seized on the new figures.
They understand how inflation can swing an election. They lost control of the House of Representatives in 2022, several months after inflation hit 9 percent in the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Through ads and social media posts, they tried to pin the latest report of rising costs directly on Mr. Trump and Republicans.
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In Ohio, an ad from Sherrod Brown, the Democratic Senate candidate, began airing Wednesday that accuses the Republican incumbent, Jon Husted, of raising prices by voting to support the war in Iran. “No matter how you pay, Jon Husted’s votes in Washington end up costing us more,” the ad says.
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In Kansas, where the heavily agricultural economy has been hit hard by the spiking cost of diesel and the Trump administration’s tariffs, the Democratic Senate candidate, Adam Hamilton, blamed Senator Roger Marshall “for the rising cost of fuel and inflation that’s costing Kansans hundreds more a month on everything from groceries and housing to health care.”
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And Pete Buttigieg wrote on social media that inflation has risen “not because of a pandemic. Not because of a natural disaster. Because of Trump’s war, tariffs, and corporate tax breaks.”
A matter of trust
The Trump administration has looked for ways to give voters financial relief, including $90 payouts for millions of seniors on Medicare and $500 rebate checks for some Affordable Care Act customers.
Some of its ideas, however, have caused only more blowback. The administration’s plan to import diesel from Russia has drawn bipartisan condemnation, as has its effort to drop import tariffs on beef.
The economy was one of Mr. Trump’s major advantages in the 2024 election. On Wednesday, though, polling suggests he and his party have lost their edge.
A recent New York Times/Siena University poll of five red states — Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Kansas and Texas — found that 61 percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the economy, compared with 38 percent who approved of it.
And a Times/Siena poll released in the middle of last month found that 51 percent of voters trusted Democrats more to manage the economy, while 45 percent chose Republicans. Democrats also had an advantage on who voters trusted more to handle the cost of living.
Mike DuHaime, a Republican strategist based in New Jersey, said Republicans in tough races would be smart to put distance between themselves and the president when it comes to the economy — but it’s too late to start now.
“There needs to be some level of independence that you’ve probably created over the last two years,” DuHaime said, “not over the last two weeks.”
High prices resonate in Georgia
Our reporters were out at polling stations in Atlanta and Savannah, Ga., talking to voters casting early ballots. Here’s what they said.
Thandie Hazelton, a project manager, said she voted for Democrats for governor and Senate because she believes they’re the best picks to confront rising costs.
“Affordability is obviously key, especially here in Georgia,” she said. “There are differences in the gas pumps, as well as in the community, as far as just affording the day-to-day necessities.”
Joy Waters voted Republican down the ticket. She counts herself as a supporter of Mr. Trump’s, though not without some reservations — including the high cost of living.
She said she wished the U.S. and Iran would end their war. “Our groceries and our gas prices would finally go down,” she said.
Alexis King, a former journalist, voted for a straight Democratic ticket. She said the cost of living weighs on her.
“I can’t afford gas, and food, and medicine, and rent, so it’s always a struggle,” she said. “I always owe somebody something, so I can pay the other guy, and I’m not the only one in that position. Housing is unaffordable. Groceries are unaffordable.”
Sean Keenan and Caitlin Philippo contributed reporting.
