On Wednesday, the group known as OPEC Plus, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, said that it would slash oil production by two million barrels a day, a decision that drew an immediate condemnation from the Biden administration. On Thursday, Mr. Biden told reporters that he was “disappointed” by the decision, and the White House also said it would release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the country’s stockpile of crude oil.
Though oil prices have climbed sharply this week, the recent increase in gas prices began in September, well before the OPEC Plus decision.
The overall impact of the announcement remains “a big maybe,” Mr. Gladden said. It could lead to a short-term rise in prices, but whether or not it is sustained depends on how energy investors react to the cut, he said. Analysts have noted that several OPEC Plus members are already unable to meet production quotas.
Crude oil prices account for more than half of the cost of gasoline. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark stood at about $93 a barrel on Friday, well below its peak of $130 in March but still up more than 23 percent since the beginning of the year.
“This really hasn’t been about crude,” Mr. Kloza, the Oil Price Information Service founder, said of the most recent gain. “It’s been about the inability to refine a lot of that crude for various reasons.”
Mr. Kloza said he did not think an “extraordinary spike” in prices was ahead, particularly one comparable to what consumers experienced earlier in the year. Still, prices are subject to several variables — many of which, including hurricanes or wildfires that lead to major refinery shutdowns, are unpredictable.
“If we lost one of these big refineries that can run 500,000 barrels a day of crude or more, it can really haunt the markets,” Mr. Kloza said.
