Winter is trolling the Kremlin.
If Vladimir Putin thought he could freeze out Ukraine’s allies by cutting off the cheap Russian gas that Europeans have used to heat their homes, Mother Nature seems to have had other plans.
The first half of this winter has been exceptionally warm across much of the continent. That has reduced the demand for gas for home heating and kept reserves in surprisingly good shape.
It helps that Europe has the money to buy gas elsewhere. And Europeans have helped themselves by tightening their energy belts. More on that later.
First, consider the wild weather.
The beginning of the new year was exceptionally warm. Jan. 1 was warmer than any January day since daily temperature records began in 1940, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a group of climate researchers supported by the European Union.
That fits a distinct warming trend: 2022 was Europe’s second-hottest year on record, after 2020, Copernicus announced on Tuesday.
The summer of 2022 was Europe’s hottest ever. Fall was Europe’s third-hottest. Winters are steadily getting milder too, especially in the colder, more northerly parts of Europe, which are warming more in winter than in summer, Freja Vamborg, a senior scientist at Copernicus, said in an email. Milder winters, especially in very cold climates, mean lower heating demand.
The fingerprints of climate change are unmistakable. The last eight years have been the eight hottest years on record.
Climate change is risky for Russia too, by the way. It is warming faster than the global average. That’s melting permafrost in some areas and — wait for this — threatening some of its oil and gas infrastructure.
This warm winter has outsized geopolitical implications. Russia supplied 40 percent of Europe’s gas before the invasion.
Natural gas, more accurately described as methane gas or fossil gas, has long been a potent weapon for Russia. It’s a less potent weapon now because Europe’s demand for heat has been lower. At least for the time being.
Gas prices had soared in the months immediately after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as Russia cut off most of its supply to the 27 countries of the European Union. Adding to the crisis, France shut down many of its aging nuclear reactors for maintenance.
Still, by the end of the year, the European Union’s gas storage capacity was at more than 83 percent. The wholesale price of gas had fallen to pre-invasion levels, though it was still higher than in years before.
“Europe has ended 2022 in a much better position than many feared only a few months ago,” said Massimo Di Odoardo, vice president of gas research at Wood Mackenzie, a private firm that analyzes natural resources trends.
Europeans made huge changes.
Gas demand fell by 10 percent in 2022. Household consumption declined. Industrial consumption, too.
Sales of heat pumps, which run on electricity, not gas, have risen sharply.
And Europeans accelerated the transition to renewables. The bloc was set to add 300 gigawatts of solar energy by 2026. That, too, can potentially blunt the leverage that the Kremlin can have over Europe, by reducing reliance on gas.
It helps that Europe is rich.
Europe still needs a lot of gas for heat and electricity, and it bought a lot of gas from countries other than Russia at exceptionally high prices. That helped to drive the global price of gas out of reach for many other countries.
“What Europe has done is outprice everyone,” said Lisa Fischer, an analyst at E3G, a climate and energy research group based in London.
War enriched gas suppliers from everywhere other than Russia.
Gas-producing companies, including those based in the United States, the largest gas exporter in the world, made a killing from high gas prices.
It’s still painful for many ordinary Europeans, though. Because Europe bought gas at such high prices, consumers are still paying through the nose. Many European cities are darker. Poor households are feeling the greatest hardship.
Next winter, there may be more discontent.
There are two uncertainties. First, China. As the country emerges from Covid lockdowns, its demand for gas may go up significantly, raising the competition for Europe.
Second, the weather. The one certainty in the era of climate change is that we are in an age of extreme weather. Or, as the International Energy Agency put it in a recent report that urged Europeans to accelerate energy efficiency and the deployment of renewables, “There is no guarantee that temperatures will be as forgiving for the remainder of the winter, or for 2023 as a whole.”
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French food giant sued: Danone, the French dairy company, is being taken to court by three environmental groups that say it has failed to sufficiently reduce its plastic footprint.
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Africa’s first heat officer: Eugenia Kargbo remembers when Sierra Leone’s capital was greener and cooler, and is now trying to help the city combat rising temperatures.
Bad news for parasites: Populations are declining sharply, and climate change could be part of the problem.
Before you go: Why do we keep widening highways?
It seems to make sense: If there’s highway congestion, just make the roads bigger. But research shows that, after a highway is widened, traffic, and the greenhouse gas emissions that come with it, generally increases. Now, some communities and government officials are pushing back on widening plans.
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Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward. Read past editions of the newsletter here.
